Conference Realignment

The college football world was hit with a bombshell in the summer of 2021 when the news that Oklahoma and Texas would be leaving the Big 12 and joining the SEC was leaked to the world. In 2023, we look back on how that decision shaped the college football landscape in a way we wouldn't ever have imagined. The ripple effects of this decision were felt far and wide throughout many conferences and could possibly lead to another power conference's demise.

Within that mid-July week OU and Texas had applied to the SEC, the SEC voted to send invitations and then both schools' Board of Regents met and accepted the said invites. After what was a wild week in July of 2021 people started to question what happened and what would happen to the Big 12. So the Big 12 went out and did what the conference hadn't done in previous years and that was to stabilize themselves for years to come. Fall of 2021, the Big 12 went and claimed UCF, Houston, BYU, and Cincinnati from the American Conference and worked themselves back up to 14 teams (for the time being). These additions added stability in a trying time; not to mention what the schools had done in their time on the field. Cincinnati, in the same season, were announced to be heading to the Big 12, they then became the first G5 (Group of 5) team to make the CFP. All the while Oklahoma lost their head coach Lincoln Riley and Texas capped off another 5-7 season. For the Big 12, things look pretty good moving forward without their two biggest money makers.

While these were just the first two dominos to fall, plenty more were fast approaching. Now let's fast forward to the summer of 2022 in what was likely a bigger surprise than the OU/Texas news. This came when USC and UCLA announced they were intending to leave the PAC 12 and join the Big 10. Unlike the OU/Texas news, USC and UCLA let everyone know immediately that they would be playing Big 10 sports starting in 2024. Eventually, the Sooners, Longhorns, and of course the Big 12 agreed to a deal that allowed those schools an early exit and will allow them to be a full member of the SEC in 2024. Now as most would think, money was a key contributor to the expansion of both the Big 10 and the SEC. All four of these schools took massive pay upgrades in joining their new conference. For instance, Oklahoma and Texas went from roughly 40 million dollars in the Big 12 to about 60 Million dollars in the SEC. Likewise, USC and UCLA will also be getting a 20 million or so bump by jumping from the PAC over to the Big 10. And the same goes for just about any team that has moved in this wave of realignment- more exposure means more money and everyone is going to take care of their university first and rightfully so.

My biggest “wow” moment I had was that in a matter of a year, the narrative shifted from the Big 12 being a dying conference, to the PAC 12 now becoming a dying conference. Unlike the Big 12 though the PAC didn't immediately go and grab replacements for the teams, they lost, and up until this point they have mostly sat on their hands waiting for a TV deal that is to the standard of the Big 12 to fall into their hands. Just for reference, the Big 12 TV deal is worth $2.28 billion and roughly $50 million per team starting in 2025. Now the PAC likely isn't going to get anywhere close to those numbers because their two biggest markets (LA) are now gone. The only real option that they have is to expand using a San Diego State team or someone similar, so the TV networks can get that Southern California viewership. As everyone already knows SDSU isn't even remotely close to the caliber of USC or UCLA. Not to mention the struggle of ESPN pulling their original offer of $800 million over 5 years and roughly $16 million per school off the table. As I currently sit here and type all of this, the only news that's been circulating so far is that Amazon and Apple are the biggest competitors for the Pac's TV rights, oh, and by the way those are streaming services, not cable TV. Remember earlier when I said that more exposure means more money? Well with those two services, the PAC loses all readily available slots and has to rely on the fan bases to support the pay they receive, which in a conference where only a handful of schools care about their university's athletics, this doesn't work out well for the PAC.

This is why some PAC 12 schools are beginning to look elsewhere. As of late Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah have been flirting with the idea of heading to the Big 12 while Oregon and Washington have been dead set on following USC and UCLA to the Big 10. Both the Big 12 and the Big 10 would welcome these schools with open arms and why wouldn't they? The conferences get new media markets and expand themselves to different time zones and have games going in every time slot of the day. Again, more exposure, more money. I fully expect to see the news break in a few months, saying that at least two of those four teams will be headed to the Big 12, presumably Colorado and Arizona. These two schools feel like the best fit for expansion, as the Buffaloes were already a member once before and Arizona adds more in the way of academics and basketball. Also I wouldn't be surprised if Arizona State and San Diego State hopped in to round out those other two previously mentioned. ASU keeps its rivalry with Arizona and boosts the PHX market. And the Big 12 cracked into southern California before the PAC 12 knew what they had waiting. If this all comes to fruition then you can bet Oregon and Washinton will be begging and pleading to get into the Big 10; which will likely happen just at a lower cost for the first few years of membership. In reality, this will all happen at some point down the road, whether it be now or later on. As we head to a power 2 conference model, it's either better yourself or get left behind.

Expansion is a hot topic and has been fascinating to cover. I am very interested to see how all of this unfolds in the coming months. Lots of questions are still out there and how it will mold college football for the future is fascinating.